Need to Know: Strategist who nailed the recent S&P; 500 top says three things are needed for a market bottom

Wariness is in order after theS&P 500s bear-market finishand a potential 75 basis-point Fed hike just one day away. Gains for stock futures and a potential bounce are fading fast.

Morgan Stanleys Mike Wilson, who can count some wins after pounding the table this year over a gloomy stock setup, told clients on Sunday that the S&P is headed toward 3,400 before a more tradable low is in.

With growth now the main risk to stocks, our focus remains on names that can deliver on earnings in a very difficult environment for many companies to navigate, said Wilson. We continue to like classic late-cycle winners defensives and energy and companies with high operational efficiency.

Plus: Everything you wanted to know about a bear market, but were afraid to ask

Also in the camp of prescient calls is The Kobeissi Letters editor in chief and founder Adam Kobeissi. In a June 6 newsletter, (shared on this column) he warned followers that 4,090 would mark a battleground level for the S&P 500, and failing that was a clear path to 4,050.

He had a stop loss set at 4,160, which marked the exact top for the index before the big pullback set in.

Sharing his latest thoughts in our call of the day, Kobeissi returns with a warning of more medium-term downside ahead, and no stock bottom until we see some classic signs:

At a high level, we have yet to see a real VIX VIX, -1.62% spike yet and panic selling has not set in year. Generally speaking, we do not see bear markets bottom without panic selling, similar to what was seen in 2001 and 2020, he told MarketWatch on Monday. Historically speaking, no bear market has ever bottomed without a VIX reading of 45 or more.