Why Europe Didnt Ramp Up Caspian Gas Imports Sooner

For over two decades, the European Union has sought gas from the Caspian Sea’s giant reserves. During that time, grand pipeline projects have been mooted and forgotten. All the while, the bloc has grown more dependent on Russian gas.

As a journalist who has spent the past 25 years specializing in Turkish and Caspian energy issues, I was not surprised to see the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in Baku last month desperately trying to source extra volumes of gas. Russia, as security mavens have long predicted, is now using its supply stranglehold on the EU to try to force concessions over its war in Ukraine.

But why didn’t Brussels have Caspian gas supplies in place long ago? It was only in 2020 that small quantities finally began flowing to Europe along a so-called “Southern Gas Corridor.” In Baku, von der Leyen secured a non-binding promise that those supplies might double to 20 billion cubic meters per year (bcm) by 2027. That’s a pittance. Compare the figure to 155 bcm, which is what Russia supplied last year, meeting 40 percent of EU demand.

Something went horribly wrong

The root problem has been Brussels' insistence that pipelines be developed by private firms and be commercially viable.” The EU has not been willing to underwrite the necessary infrastructure, assuming that market forces would take the lead. Maybe that would happen in a world of perfect competition. But market forces have been unable to compete with Gazprom, a Russian monopoly that plays by its own rules.