2023-10-04 14:16:00

Beth Pinsker: Your off-ramp for I-bonds is coming up soon if you bought the securities for their juicy 9.6% yield

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MarketWatch
By Beth Pinsker

You can hold on to Series I bonds for 30 years, but if you jumped in when the interest rate skyrocketed to 9.62%, you might be looking for an off-ramp well before then.

If you were attracted primarily by the high yield, you may want to sell sometime in 2023.

The total return on I-bonds is made up of two parts a fixed rate thats set at the time of purchase and an inflation-adjusted rate that resets every six months, in November and May. The fixed rate has been 0% since May 2020. But since the inflation-adjusted part is tied to the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U), youll see forecasts of what the next one will be as soon as mid-October. The most recent report showed inflation was 8.3%, four times as high as the Federal Reserves upper target.

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Looking at numbers already published, David Enna, founder of TipsWatch.com, a website that tracks inflation-protected securities, predicts the variable inflation-adjusted portion of the I-bonds formula will be around 6.3%, and likely fall to 3.5% eventually. Enna also sees a slim chance that the Treasury will increase the fixed rate above 0%, which would make them more attractive in the long-term.

Most new money swarmed into I-bonds in late 2021 and early 2022 when rates climbed to an enviable spread compared with savings accounts, Treasurys TMUBMUSD01Y, 3.986% and even TIPS. Sales hit nearly $5 billion in May 2022, compared with just over $1 billion the previous year.Redemptions stayed flat.

I-bond rules on selling

When you buy I-bonds, youre locked in for at least one year, so if you bought early in 2022, you cant think about selling just yet. If youve already exceeded the $10,000 cap per individual, you also cant buy any more when the rate resets in November, and youll have to wait until January.

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