AD
2024-07-15 04:00:00 +0300

COLUMN-Recession would make tough oil sanctions on Russia more likely: Kemp

Logo Nasdaq
Nasdaq
By Reuters

By John Kemp

AD
AD

LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - Recession in the major economies is the only sure-fire way to reduce Russias petroleum revenues an uncomfortable truth Western policymakers have tried to obfuscate from voters at home.

U.S. and EU policymakers will not deliberately plunge their economies into a recession simply to intensify the economic pressure on Russia; privation is not an attractive option in electoral politics.

But if their economies go into recession anyway, which currently appears possible or even probable, the likelihood of tough sanctions on Russias oil exports will increase significantly later this year and in 2023.

Russia was the worlds second-largest oil producer in 2021, with output of 536 million tonnes, behind the United States with output of 711 million tonnes, but just ahead of Saudi Arabia on 515 million tonnes.

On a mass-basis, Russia accounted for nearly 13% of worldwide production, behind the United States (17%) but marginally ahead of Saudi Arabia (12%), according to BP (Statistical review of world energy, July 2022).

Saudi Arabia, the other Gulf monarchies and U.S. shale firms appear to be producing close to their current limits, with few options to raise output in the short term.

None of these producers seems both able and willing to make up for any loss of crude and refined fuel exports from Russia, in any significant volume, despite the recent surge in prices.

In the absence of a recession, the marginal barrel in the oil market is therefore from Russia, and the terms on which it is made available to international buyers in the Middle East and Asia set the global price.

Continue read on nasdaq.com

AD
Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-07-14 16:05:21 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - Recession in the major economies is the only sure-fire way to reduce Russias petroleum revenues an uncomfortable...

Logo Investing.com
MarketsBy Reuters2024-07-14 16:21:39 +0300
Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An employee is seen at an oil platform operated by Lukoil company at the Kravtsovskoye oilfield in the Baltic Sea, Russia September 16,...

Logo Reuters
MarketsBy Reuters2024-07-14 16:16:43 +0300
Recession in the major economies is the only sure-fire way to reduce Russias petroleum revenues an uncomfortable truth Western policymakers have tried to...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-07-04 04:00:00 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden has called on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers to increase their oil output to help...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-06-30 04:00:00 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, June 29 (Reuters) - With global inventories steadily falling and spare capacity eroding, the oil market resembles a geological fault...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-06-20 14:49:16 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - Investors renewed bullishness toward oil prices was checked last week as central banks lifted interest rates and...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-06-21 03:01:00 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - Investors renewed bullishness toward oil prices was checked last week as central banks lifted interest rates and...

Logo U.S. News & World Report
PoliticsBy Reuters2024-07-12 12:13:39 +0300
DUBAI (Reuters) - President Joe Biden will visit the United State's most important Arab ally Saudi Arabia on July 15-16 after two years of strained ties over...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Market Insite2024-06-29 16:50:59 +0300
The energy sector is poised for a higher start, supported by continued strength in the underlying commodities despite weakness in the broader markets. U.S....

Logo Investing.com
MarketsBy Reuters2024-07-12 12:15:42 +0300
Reuters. U.S. President Joe Biden speaks before signing an executive order to help safeguard women's access to abortion and contraception after the Supreme...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-07-04 14:51:17 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - Investors continued to liquidate bullish long positions in petroleum last week as the economic outlook deteriorated...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-07-05 04:00:00 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - Investors continued to liquidate bullish long positions in petroleum last week as the economic outlook deteriorated...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-06-17 04:00:00 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden has written to major oil companies to complain about the high refining margins for gasoline...

Logo Investing.com
MarketsBy Bloomberg2024-07-12 14:27:32 +0300
Bloomberg. A OPEC logo sits on a sign outside the 167th Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) conference in Vienna, Austria. Photographer:...

Logo Investing.com
EconomyBy Bloomberg2024-06-17 20:45:19 +0300
Bloomberg. An employee at the Khurais Processing Department in the Khurais oil field in Khurais, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, June 28, 2021. The Khurais oil...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-07-11 15:17:48 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, July 11 (Reuters) - Investors dumped petroleum-related derivatives last week at one of the fastest rates of the pandemic era as...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-06-24 04:00:00 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - U.S. diesel consumption is likely to decline by 200,000 to 600,000 barrels per day (5%-15%) over the next year as...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-06-23 17:32:41 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - U.S. diesel consumption is likely to decline by 200,000 to 600,000 barrels per day (5%-15%) over the next year as...

Logo Nasdaq
Business / FinanceBy Reuters2024-07-12 04:05:00 +0300
By John Kemp LONDON, July 11 (Reuters) - Investors dumped petroleum-related derivatives last week at one of the fastest rates of the pandemic era as...

Logo Reuters
MarketsBy Reuters2024-07-04 11:19:03 +0300
U.S. President Joe Biden has called on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers to increase their oil output to help stabilise prices, which have surged as a...