2024-09-21 22:45:00

The Tell: S&P; 500 sees its third leg down of more than 10%. Heres what history shows about past bear markets hitting...

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MarketWatch
By Christine Idzelis

Stocks fell sharply after the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it was raising its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point as it battles inflation, with the S&P 500 continuing a slide described by Bespoke Investment Group as its third leg down.

Where this bear market ultimately bottoms is anyones guess, and events outside of the Feds control will likely play a role in where the market finally ends up, Bespoke said in a note emailed Wednesday. In times like this, though, its always nice to look at how the current period compares to other periods, if for no other reason than to see how bad we have it or how much worse it can get.

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The S&P 500, which hit a record high on Jan. 3, has sunk 20.5% so far this year, according to FactSet data. The index dropped 1.7% Wednesday for its largest drop since Sept. 13, the day inflation data released for August came in hotter than expected.

The S&P 500 is down more than 10% from its August high, its third such leg down in the current bear market, according to Bespoke, though its still above its June low.

The firm studied past bear markets during the post-World War II period that began at all-time highs and saw at least three legs down of 10% or more before the S&P 500 ultimately bottomed. Those began in January 1973, November 1980, August 1987, March 2000 and October 2007, according to Bespoke.

If there was one consistent pattern within all five of the prior periods highlighted, it is that in every one, the S&P 500 made a lower low in its third leg lower, Bespoke said. The S&P 500 is not far above its June low, so either the market has further to fall, or if the index can rally back to 4,250, it would offer some faint hope to bulls that the worst of the declines would be behind us.

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